An analyst says the realised Bitcoin price indicator is on alert
Plan B, a quantitative crypto market analyst says that Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below the realised price and the 200-week moving average, an indicator that tells whether the currency is in a bullish or bear market.
The term used by Plan B is “weak hands,” and is often used to describe investors who lack conviction in their strategies or lack the resources to carry them out.
This is only the eighth time the leading cryptocurrency has surpassed the historic level since its inception.
Plan B told his 1.8 million Twitter followers that Bitcoin is far below its projected trajectory based on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model as it hovers at $20,000. He pointed out that Bitcoin is below its 200-week moving average and below the realise price, closing August at $20,059.
The analyst also said that the trend line suggests that investors without the resources or conviction to hold their investments have already capitulated and sold their holdings.
While the current downturn bears some resemblance to the bear market seen in 2015, when Bitcoin tanked but eventually recovered, Plan B says the situation is different now in that 7 years ago, the realised price of BTC managed to stay above the 200-week moving average:
Some compare the current situation with 2015 and conclude that we will remain bearish for months. One significant difference: the realised price (gray) in 2015 was still 2x higher than the 200-week moving average (black).Currently the realised is below, meaning weak hands have already sold.