JPMorgan raises long-term Bitcoin price forecast to $150,000
Strategists at Wall Street investment bank JPMorgan have updated what they consider a “fair value” price for Bitcoin to $150,000.
According to JPMorgan Chase strategists team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin’s “fair value” should be 12% lower than its actual price. In their opinion, the cryptocurrency is currently overpriced and its fair value should be around $38,000.
The number is based on the premise that BTC is about four times more volatile than gold. Strategists have estimated that in a scenario where the volatility differential narrows to three times, the fair value rises to $50,000.
“The biggest challenge for Bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that prevent future institutional adoption”, said the strategists.
A year ago, strategists suggested the long-term price of Bitcoin was $146,000, but they bumped that up to a new forecast of $150,000. They did not provide a definition or timescale of “long term”, however.
The new price prediction is a level that would put the total market value of BTC on par with that of all gold privately held for investment purposes. Analysts also commented that the January market pullback did not look like the same capitulation event that took place in May 2021.
However, they also noted that metrics such as open-ended futures (OI) and BTC holdings on exchanges are now pointing to a “longer-lasting and therefore more worrisome downward trend in position.”
It is worth remembering that in the past these banks did not bother to advise their investors about the cryptocurrency market. Even though this is a generally pessimistic forecast, market updates published by major Wall Street banks are now advising investors about the ocean where sardines, whales and other players in the Bitcoin ecosystem move transparently.
With informations: Bloomberg